As expected, the launch of California’s adult-use marijuana program has brought significantly increased demand in marijuana products among consumers, and to meet that demand, regulators are working to approve temporary licenses across the supply chain.
The State has been converting black market/grey market operators at an increasing rate. Of all cultivation licenses issued thus far, 55% are in 3 counties, 20% in Humboldt (majority outdoor ), 14% Mendocino (majority outdoor) and 22% Santa Barbara ( majority outdoor/mixed-light).
Nearly one in every two retail/dispensary/delivery licenses (49%) are located in just three counties: Los Angeles (28%), Alameda (11%), and San Francisco (10%).
Nearly one in every two manufacturing licenses (48%) are located in three counties: Alameda (19%), Los Angeles (15%), and Riverside (10%).
The State estimates it will need to issue approximately 55,000-65,000 licenses ( across all types, but cultivation being the lion-share) to reach 70%+ regulated cannabis sales/all sales in the state, it is currently 30%- 99.9% via medical sales. What we are seeing is that "medical patients" are becoming recreational patients, so there will have to be a retrace and conversion of the current $3 B medical sales market to recreational first. We are predicting a major contraction of medical sales by year-end, but recreational sales will absorb the conversion ending net positive regulate sales if license issuance can maintain steam.
Cultivation licenses: 782% growth rate (from 349 to 3,077 licenses)
Distributor licenses: 248% growth rate (from 176 to 613 licenses)
Delivery licenses: 219% growth rate (from 52 to 166 licenses)
Manufacturing licenses: 126% growth rate (from 302 to 682 licenses)
Retail licenses: 126% growth rate (from 137 to 309 licenses)
Microbusiness licenses: 126% growth rate (from 57 to 129 licenses)
Dispensary licenses: 99% growth rate (from 184 to 366 licenses)
Testing licenses: 80% growth rate (from 15 to 27 licenses)
